Comparison of IREN and SLNH MW Procurement and Valuation

Source:https://chatgpt.com/share/68d2e4e6-f7a8-8009-8ce6-eec6b11a2218

Alright — let’s walk through how the market might value MW capacity for IREN vs SLNH, based on their economics and scalability.

Step 1 – Establish Valuation Framework

Investors typically value data center operators (including Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI/HPC) using:

  • Enterprise Value (EV) per MW – how much capital markets are willing to pay for each MW of energized capacity.
  • Revenue/Margin Multiples – tied to power cost, margin stability, and client mix. Benchmarks:
  • Top-tier AI/HPC colocation (e.g., CoreWeave deals) = 3.5M–3.5M–n5M per MW (very high due to cloud AI demand).
  • Bitcoin miners pre-pivot (pure compute, no AI contracts) = 0.5M–0.5M–n1.2M per MW.
  • Transitioning firms (IREN, CLSK, HUT) are being repriced upward as they secure AI deals.

Step 2 – Apply to IREN

  • Cost Profile: 220K–220K–n300K per MW annually → stable.
  • Scalability: High (100s of MW possible).
  • Client Fit: Attractive for hyperscalers (they want guaranteed uptime, ESG alignment).
  • Valuation Range:
  • Current market tends to value IREN at 1.5M–1.5M–n2.5M per MW today.
  • With confirmed AI/HPC contracts → could re-rate toward 3M–3M–n4M per MW.

Step 3 – Apply to SLNH

  • Cost Profile: 130K–130K–n170K per MW annually → much cheaper.
  • Scalability: Constrained by finding stranded power projects.
  • Client Fit: Niche — very cheap power could appeal to cost-sensitive AI/HPC, but stability is weaker.
  • Valuation Range:
  • Today: Market sees SLNH more like a distressed miner → 0.3M–0.3M–n0.7M per MW.
  • If SLNH proves it can reliably energize and monetize all 825 MW pipeline → could re-rate to 1.2M–1.2M–n2M per MW (still a discount to IREN due to scalability and contract risk).

Step 4 – Illustrative Example (825 MW pipeline for SLNH)

  • At **0.5M/MW∗∗→ 0.5M/MW** → ~n410M implied EV.
  • At **1.5M/MW∗∗(ifderiskedwithHPCcontracts)→ 1.5M/MW** (if derisked with HPC contracts) → ~n1.24B implied EV.
  • Current EV is far below that, hence the asymmetric upside thesis for SLNH.

Step 5 – Side-by-Side Summary

MetricIRENSLNH
Current Market Value per MW~1.5M–1.5M–n2.5M~0.3M–0.3M–n0.7M
Upside if AI/HPC fully ramps3M–3M–n4M+1.2M–1.2M–n2M
Investor PremiumScalability, ESG, hyperscaler credibilityLow-cost edge, asymmetric upside if pipeline is realized

👉 Bottom line:

  • IREN is already priced as a credible AI/HPC partner, with upside to cloud-level multiples.
  • SLNH trades at a heavy discount, but if they energize even half of their pipeline into HPC contracts, the stock could multi-bag on re-rating per MW.

Do you want me to run a scenario valuation table for SLNH’s 825 MW (low/mid/high case) so you can see exact implied market caps at each per-MW multiple?