You’re essentially both partially correct, but here’s the technical distinction that resolves the disagreement:
1. What your forum peer is right about
- MercadoLibre (MELI) reports its results in USD, and its headline revenue numbers already include FX translation effects (so local inflation or devaluation affects these when converted to USD).
- MELI also publishes FX-neutral (constant-currency) growth rates in its quarterly filings and investor decks.
Those FX-neutral numbers remove the impact of currency depreciation (e.g., Argentina, Brazil, Mexico) to show organic local-currency growth. - So yes — MELI does provide an “adjusted” view that accounts for inflation/devaluation.
2. Where you are right
- Even though MELI reports FX-neutral growth, the nominal USD growth on the income statement (like in your TIKR screenshot) is still inflated by high local inflation in countries such as Argentina and Brazil.
- The FX-neutral growth figures MELI reports are still measured in local currencies, which means they don’t fully isolate real volume growth — they just remove FX translation.
In other words, FX-neutral ≠ real (inflation-adjusted) growth. - If inflation in Argentina runs at 200% and MELI raises nominal prices accordingly, that “local-currency growth” looks strong, but the real purchasing-power growth (what value investors care about) could be closer to single digits (≈ 8%).
3. Reconciling the two views
| Type of Growth | What It Represents | Adjusts for FX? | Adjusts for Inflation? | Approx. MELI Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported USD growth | USD-converted sales | ❌ No | ❌ No | 37–70 %+ YoY |
| FX-neutral growth (MELI metric) | Local-currency growth, constant exchange rates | ✅ Yes | ❌ No | ~30–40 % YoY |
| Real (inflation-adjusted) growth | True unit/volume growth | ✅ Yes | ✅ Yes | ~8–10 % YoY |
So your statement about “real expected growth around 8 %” refers to inflation-adjusted real growth, which is fair from a value-investing perspective.
Your peer’s point applies to reported FX-neutral accounting, which indeed excludes currency devaluation but not inflation.
✅ Verdict:
- He’s right about MELI’s methodology and USD reporting.
- You’re right that real growth, once inflation is stripped out, is much lower than the headline numbers — likely in the high single digits. That’s the nuance most value investors care about when assessing true economic growth rather than nominal or FX-neutral figures.