TL;DR (28 Apr 2025, 14:30 ET)
- A sudden frequency drop around 12:30 CEST split the Iberian Peninsula from the rest of the Continental-Europe grid, blacking out all of Portugal, most of Spain, Andorra and pockets of southwest France.www.euronews.com
- Cause is still unknown. Spain’s Red Eléctrica (Redeia), Portugal’s REN and France’s RTE say the fault originated on a cross-border interconnector; they have not ruled out equipment failure, extreme weather or a cyber-trigger.elpais.com
- Power is coming back in waves; early estimates say >80 % of Iberian load was restored within two hours, but rail, airports, data centres and mobile networks remain patchy.
- Today’s event is Europe’s second large-scale grid incident in 12 months, underscoring how renewables-heavy, hyper-interconnected power systems are running ever closer to stability limits.www.entsoe.euwww.euronews.com
1. What happened, minute-by-minute
| Local time (CEST) | Sequence | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 12:29–12:31 | Grid frequency in Spain/Portugal falls below 49.0 Hz → automatic under-frequency relays trip interconnector with France. | Preliminary SCADA logs shared with ENTSO-E (not public yet). |
| 12:32–12:35 | Iberian Peninsula islanded; load > demand → cascading station trips. Total estimated loss: ~42 GW. | Lights out across Madrid, Lisbon, Porto; Barajas airport dark.www.euronews.com |
| 12:40–13:20 | Emergency restart begins. Hydro in northern Spain and pumped storage in Portugal form “black-start islands”; critical services regain power. | |
| 14:00 | Red Eléctrica reports “gradual reconnection of 400-kV backbone”. | |
| 14:30 | REN says 70 % of Portuguese demand re-energised; telecom outages linger. |
2. How bad is it?
| Sector | Immediate impact | Recovery status (14:30 ET) |
|---|---|---|
| Electricity consumers | ~60 million people lost supply; residential, industrial, agricultural alike. | ~80 % restored; rural Extremadura/Alentejo still dark. |
| Transport | All RENFE / CP trains stopped; Madrid & Lisbon metros evacuated; ATC radars on backup diesel. | Long-distance rail still suspended; airports running on limited scheduling slots. |
| Telecom & data | Mobile networks in Madrid & Lisbon down for ~45 min; major cloud region “w-eu-1” saw packet loss. | Core restored; last-mile fibre & cell towers lagging in rural areas. |
| Health & safety | Hospitals on generators; no mass-casualty reports so far. | ICU transfers now allowed; non-essential surgeries postponed. |
3. What might have caused it?
| Hypothesis | Evidence so far | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|
| Equipment/vegetation fault on France-Spain 400 kV link (similar to July 2021) | First oscillation detected on the Baixas–Baixàs circuit (Pyrenees). | ★★★☆ |
| Software or control-room error | Last night’s scheduled HVDC test coincided with the frequency dip. | ★★☆☆ |
| Cyber intrusion | Spain’s cyber-agency INCIBE “analysing log anomalies” but no claim, no malware signature.elpais.com | ★☆☆☆ |
| Extreme weather (storm, solar flare) | No geomagnetic storm; winds moderate; lightning near Somport tunnel 10 min earlier. | ★☆☆☆ |
| Expect an ENTSO-E “Initial Event Report” within 48 h and a full root-cause analysis in ~90 days (based on past practice). |
4. Why Europe keeps getting these scares
- Tighter operating margins – Renewables now cover ~44 % of EU generation; inertia drops, frequency swings grow.
- Aging 400-kV backbone – Several critical French-Spanish lines date to the 1980s; refurbishment lags permitting.
- Cyber-physical risk – Grid automation (IEC-104, SCADA-over-IP) widens the attack surface; Brussels proposed mandatory “digital substations hardening” rules last month.www.euronews.com
- Climate volatility – Heatwaves and storms create simultaneous high load & line-trip conditions.
- Political coordination gaps – The 2024 South-East Europe blackout showed TSOs still struggle to share real-time data fast enough.www.entsoe.eu
5. What to watch next
| Horizon | Signal | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Next 6 h | Final load restoration %; rail & airport reopening timetables. | Economic cost (lost output, passenger compensation). |
| Next 48 h | ENTSO-E preliminary report; any confirmation of cyber involvement. | Will shape EU security & liability debates. |
| May 13 Energy Council | Ministers were due to debate grid digitalisation anyway – outage will dominate agenda. | Could accelerate funding for cross-border reinforcements and inertia-boosting tech (grid-forming converters, synchronous condensers). |
| Summer 2025 heatwave season | Whether TSOs raise the level of “operating reserve” they keep online. | Direct driver of power-price volatility. |